International Equity Market Review - December Quarter 2011
This quarter Evans and Partners provide commentary around the ongoing struggles in Europe and the credit tightening risks as European banks shrink balance sheets; some positive signs in the US economy, which was the best performing major equity market in 2011; and the exposure of the accounting fraud at Japan’s Olympus Corp.
We provide an in depth look at China and the massive investment and credit-led stimulus program launched by the central government in late 2008. The full magnitude of this program is only now becoming apparent (credit to GDP over three years increased by 60%, fixed investment accounting for almost half the economy). We “join the dots” between the property market, fixed investment, local government debt, the official banking system, and the “shadow” banking system, and look at some of the vulnerabilities that now exist in the Chinese economy as a consequence of this stimulus program and the constraints on the government in managing them.
Login for further information and more detailed research.Evolution Mining (EVN) - Still Evolving?
We retain a NEUTRAL recommendation on the basis that the stock is trading at valuation.
Alacer Gold Corp. (AQG) - Growth Not Eventuating Yet
Alacer presented an disappointing quarterly report, with production from Australian assets and group guidance for 2012 significantly lower than guidance given at the time of the merger between Avoca and Anatolia less than 18 months ago.
Telstra (TLS) - Winning The Mobile Battle
Telstra is starting to get a little stretched on our valuation assessment but it has momentum in terms of its Mobile performance and the prospect of potential capital management initiatives on completion of the deal with NBN Co which will deliver significant upfront fully taxed decommissioning payments.
Newcrest Mining (NCM) - December Quarterly Meeting Revised Guidance
Newcrest posted a flat quarterly, placing pressure on a very strong performance in the second half to meet revised guidance.
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Morning Report
The morning report is a daily publication from Evans & partners offering a graphical overview of recent global market activity and trends. It covers movements in Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Equities, including key stocks in the Australian market.
The daily publication also contains a topical 'Chart of the day', bringing to light any relevant economic or financial issues.
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Evans and Partners will always look for, and promote, the simplest investment solution for each individual client. We promote our investment strategy ideas through three regular publications, the weekly View from the Outer, monthly Financial Engineer and monthly Investment Chartbook keep clients up to date with our key investment themes and ideas.
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